Jumbo Series A Rounds Hiding The Real Squeeze On Seed Startups

Figure — global startups have closed at least 114 Series A rounds of $100 million or more so far this year, Crunchbase reported in late September, and more than 70% of them went to AI companies. For most seed founders, that headline is a warning.

U.S. startups closed 272 Series A rounds in the third quarter, according to Crunchbase data, about 28% fewer than the 377 a year earlier. Seed held up better, at 984 rounds vs. 1,059. The megarounds hide how few A rounds are getting done. Seed checks keep growing. The median U.S. seed round was about $3 million last year, 3x its 2018 level, according to Crunchbase. Yet only 24% of companies that raised a $1 million-plus seed in 2023 have moved past seed, and just 16% of the 2024 cohort, down from 55% or higher through 2020. Size your seed against the Series A Uncork Capital‘s Andy McLoughlin told Crunchbase News that Series A investors now expect $2 million to $3 million in ARR, sometimes $4 million, and the time from seed to A has stretched past two years. If a seed won’t carry you to that bar with six months to spare, a smaller round is the better deal. A bigger seed isn’t required. Take Atomic, a New York-based supply chain planning software company founded in 2023 (and not an MGV portfolio company). It raised a $3 million seed, right at the median, in April 2025, led by Madrona and DVx Ventures, then closed a $12.5 million Series A led by Madrona and Klass Capital about 17 months later. Map your Series A leads now Funds of $100 million to $500 million typically lead the Series A.